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Oil Less than 1% chance on Sanibel Island and Captiva Island
Recent projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirm the sentiments of a leading local expert that there is a minimal likelihood of oil from the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill impacting the Beaches of Sanibel and Captiva on southwest Florida’s Gulf coast. Click Here to see NOAA's projection map.
In a technical report released July 2, NOAA reports that the probability of oil impacting the destination is less than 1 percent and that the probability of oiling for much of the west coast of Florida is 20 percent or less. It further states that any oil reaching the area would have spent considerable time degrading and dispersing and would be in the form of scattered tar balls and not a large surface slick of oil.
The report echoes statements from Kristie Anders, education director for the Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation, who earlier stated that the chances of oil impacting The Beaches of Sanibel and Captiva are slim. She said the loop current in the Gulf follows the edge of the West Florida Continental Shelf, which runs parallel to the state’s coast and extends to about 150 miles off the destination’s shores. When the strong current hits the shelf, it curves southward along its edge.
“The continental shelf serves as our guardian angel,” explains Anders. “Barring a major storm, it’s the greatest reason to be optimistic that we will experience minimal impact from the spill, since it will steer the loop current away from our area and well offshore of Southwest Florida.”
Anders further explains that the Gulf Stream, a warm Atlantic Ocean current and one of the strongest known ocean currents, originates in the gulf as the Loop Current that is steered by the continental shelf. The shelf is the extended perimeter of each continent that was part of the continent during glacial periods when sea levels were lower, but the shelf is undersea in relatively shallow waters during interglacial periods such as the current timeframe.
To date, NOAA reports that no significant amount of oil has entered the Loop Current.
NOAA’s projections are based on a model it created by compiling information regarding 500 possible scenarios. Details of NOAA’s findings can be found at: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100702_longterm.html
Monday, September 6, 2010
"The damaged Blow Out Preventer (BOP), along with the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) Cap, have been removed from the Gulf of Mexico and are currently on board the Q4000. The BOP is considered evidentiary material, and is now under the supervision of the Deepwater Horizon Criminal Investigation Team and FBI Evidence Recovery Team." The next step some time next week is the final 'bottom kill' procedure.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have Sanibel, Captiva or Fort Myers Beach beaches been impacted by the oil spill?
No. The Florida Division of Emergency Management gives 72 hour forecasts and no impact on beaches in southwest Florida is indicated.
When is the oil spill expected to reach Sanibel, Captiva or Fort Myers Beach?
No one knows the long-term direction or impact of the spill. The Loop Current which is 200 miles off the coast at our location and weather play a big role in determining the direction of movement.
Is it safe to swim, fish in the Gulf of Mexico off Sanibel, Captiva or Fort Myers Beach?
It is safe to swim on Sanibel, Captiva and Fort Myers Beach.
Is it safe to eat seafood?
Yes, commercial seafood can be purchased at local restaurants and from grocery stores.
What is the "Loop Current"?
Part of the Gulf Stream, the Loop Current is a warm ocean current in the Gulf of Mexico that flows northward between Cuba and the Yucatán peninsula, moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, loops west and south before exiting to the east through the Florida Straits.
A related feature is an area of warm water called an "Eddy" or "Loop Current ring" that separates from the Loop Current, somewhat randomly. These rings then drift to the west at speeds of about 0.11 mph and bump into the coast of Texas or Mexico. In the Gulf of Mexico, the deepest areas of warm water are associated with the Loop Current and the rings of current that have separated from the Loop Current are commonly called Loop Current eddies.
Loop Current
How does the Loop Current affect Sanibel and Captiva?
As mentioned above, the Loop Current is located in the deepest waters and off the coast of Sanibel/Captiva is a shallow shelf that goes out over 200 miles. Small amounts of the oil spill are now getting into the Loop Current but are far off our coast and unless a large wind disturbance arises in the Gulf, the oil should have little impact on our beaches and bays.
Loop Current Distance
Where can I get more information?
Captiva Island live beach cam
Sanibel Island live beach cam
Lee County Emergency Operations Center
Florida Department of Environmental Protection
BP Oil Spill Incident Response
Environmental Protection Agency Website on BP Oil Spill
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
University of South Florida College of Marine Science
If you have an immediate need for information,
please contact us by phone at: (239) 472-1080 or we
can be reached by email at:
island@sanibel-captiva.org
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